Écrit par GreenFacts  
10-02-2009

A GreenFacts summary of the IEA´s global energy scenarios to 2050

Brussels, 9 February 2009. The projected substantial growth in the global economy between 2008 and 2050 implies an increase in energy needs. Unsustainable pressures on the environment and on natural resources are inevitable if energy demand remains closely coupled with economic growth and if fossil fuel demand is not reduced. A dramatic shift is needed in government energy policies, ensuring longer-term planning on which industries can rely.

Global energy scenarios & strategies to 2050 are explored by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their ´Energy Technology Perspectives 2008´ report.
GreenFacts faithfully summarized the IEA´s Executive Summary of this report. As of today, the GreenFacts Digest on energy technologies is published and accessible free of charge at www.greenfacts.org/en/energy-technologies/.

Highlights of IEA report on Energy Technology Perspectives

Under ´business-as-usual´ the IEA foresees a 70% increase in oil demand by 2050 and a 130% rise in CO2 emissions. That is, in the absence of policy change and major supply constraints.

Scenarios were developed to assess the efforts needed to either stabilize energy-related CO2 emissions at the level they were in 2005, or even to reduce them to 50% of that level by 2050. The goal of the most ambitious scenarios is to limit global warming to 2 - 2.4 °C, a level that would prevent its most severe consequences. This goal requires urgent implementation of unprecedented new energy policies, the widespread deployment of technologies still under development, and additional investments in the energy sector that could reach 1.1% of global GDP each year between now and 2050.

Energy efficiency improvements in buildings, appliances, transport, industry and power generation represent the largest and least costly area for reducing CO2 emissions. Next are the measures to produce energy through renewable sources, nuclear power, and CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Action in all these areas is urgent and necessa ry.

Some of the technologies needed are not yet available, and many others require further refinement and cost reductions. A huge effort of research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) is therefore urgently required, both in the public and the private sector. It is estimated that the public sector needs to increase research and development investments by as much as ten times the current amounts.

Most new technologies are more expensive than established ones, and it is only through their deployment that costs can be reduced and the product adapted to the market. Governments must enhance deployment programmes, especially for technologies with the greatest potential such as biofuels and solar energy.

International collaboration is essential to accelerate the development and global deployment of sustainable energy technologies in the most efficient way. Networks in which numerous technology experts from around the world co-ordinate their energy technology programmes already exist. These networks need strong international leadership from policy makers at the highest level.

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GreenFacts asbl/vzw is an independent, multi-stakeholder non-profit organization based in Belgium. Our mission is to bring complex scientific reports on health and the environment to the reach of non-experts.

We publish faithful summaries of authoritative international scientific reports. The summaries are written in a language for non-specialists and presented in a reader-friendly Three-Level Structure of increasing detail. GreenFacts´ publications are freely available in several languages on www.greenfacts.org.

GreenFacts was created in 2001 by individuals from scientific institutions, environmental and health organizations, and businesses, who called for wider access to unbiased information on health and the environment.

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